Trade Update and New Trade WYNN

ThestockhastransformeditselffromapurelyU。

S。

operatortoabigChineseplayer?

75%ofWYNNsrevenuesarefromMacau!

ThebaccaratplayersofMacauhavebeenahugeboonforSteveWynnandhiscasinoempire?

ButasChinahasslowedinthelastyear,thegamblersinMacauhavepulledbackthereinsontheirspending,bothatthecasinotablesandinthehigh-endshopsaroundtown。

LastnightwasthelatestdatapointthattheslowdowninMacauisnotover?

GamblingrevenueinMacaurose12。

3%inSeptember,lessthanthe15-17%expectedbyanalysts?

Septembersrevenueofaround$3billionwasthesecondweakestmonthlyfigureoftheyear(asreportedbytheMacaugovernment)?

Visitorlevelsfromthemainlandhavebeentrendinglowerallyear,astherichChinesetycoonscutbackonconspicuousconsumptionandhaltspendingasbusinessslows。

WYNNsgrowthstoryisdirectlytiedtoChina?

WhilethecompanypartlyblamedweakQ2resultsonbadluckinthecasinos(lowcapturerate,meaningthehousewonlessthantheprobabilitieswoulddictate),partoftheweaknessisalsoduetogeneralMacauweakness。

Q3earningsaregoingtocomeoutlaterthismonth?

TheoptionsmarketispricingitlikethereportwillbebeforeOct19thexpiry?

Expectationshavebeenlowered,butwithaP/Eabove20,WYNNhadbettershowsomepotentialgrowthgoingforward,orthestockislikelytobeslammedbackdownto100afterthereport。

ImpliedvolsareexpensiveinOctoberaheadofthereport,butIwanttoinitiateasmallpositiontodayincasethestockstartstoselloffintotheearningsreport(andtodaysMacaudatacouldbethestartofasentimentshiftforthestock)?

WYNNhasbeendownonthepast5earningsreports,soIthinktradersmightanticipatethatweakness,headingintothisquartersreport?

Iwillre-assessthetradeonceweareacoupledaysbeforethereport。

TRADE:WYNN($113。

20)BoughtOct/Nov105PutCalendarfor$1。

40

-Sold1Oct(regularexpiry)105putat$0。

75

-Bought1Nov105putfor$2。

15

TRADERATIONALE?

Thisstructuregivesmesomeshortdeltaatinitiationtoday,soIllparticipateindownsideoverthenextcoupleweeks,butIdonthavetoworryaboutthetadecayinthemeantime?


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